Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 January 19-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca6a4a36e551d126a89c16c73d2286ff8bc1ea13dd5816d12d70295411af0f4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 49c | 9,879$4,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,029.37 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 10c | 8,086$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.26 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…7967backed Yes | 70c | 8,068$5,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,397.32 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 7,417$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 32c | 5,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 826.65$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.66 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0297backed No | 31c | 715.59$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 74c | 500$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…7a12backed No | 21c | 229$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 28c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x66ef…f738backed No | 34c | 145.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 56c | 142.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 24c | 132$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a71…49bcbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…7875backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…cf28backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…9396backed Yes | 78c | 74.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…edacbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…e6b3backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1904…23d3backed No | 71c | 29.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…4680backed No | 41c | 24.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x351d…0ebebacked Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3132…a3b3backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 January 19-25?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 January 19-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.