Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 19-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7adc54a9d6d907370d29c3fa104cb70470145edc16393ac6704d4971774b9568
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $162,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e6f…5e44backed Yes | 2c | 18,818$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 1c | 11,360$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.7 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,608$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.93 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 1c | 8,586$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.23 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 44c | 4,927$2,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,148.61 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,522$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4e…0d6ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,353$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…02ddbacked Yes | 1c | 2,700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 6c | 2,497$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.25 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,467$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…c090backed Yes | 4c | 2,400$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +204.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d24…1f77backed Yes | 7c | 1,971$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.58 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdf…adc5backed Yes | 1c | 1,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd648…2badbacked Yes | 7c | 1,466$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 8c | 1,240$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1d…28a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,230$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 4c | 1,203$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 8c | 964.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…9665backed Yes | 3c | 879.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 3c | 814.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…9e82backed Yes | 3c | 677.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…8807backed Yes | 8c | 657.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 618.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 2c | 578.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 550$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb885…e677backed Yes | 6c | 547.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…b6f4backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb999…8e7abacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…e00abacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…f60fbacked Yes | 5c | 395.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…84f5backed Yes | 6c | 390.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 6c | 329.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 7c | 305.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 158.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 14c | 143.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x359c…3163backed Yes | 26c | 108.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +288.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aad…ff47backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.43per pick | 47cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed Yes | 20c | 53.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c19…cc52backed No | 63c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1904…23d3backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3d…d6a5backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 19-25?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 January 19-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.