Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 19-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48f260b46f9cb074c040306ae3894f721abdf92f8156e845b60d5d562a2518b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $220,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $207,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 54c | 14,633$7,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,847.96 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c2…7bbbbacked No | 0c | 12,666$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…7967backed Yes | 47c | 11,909$5,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,359.4 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb09a…7fc7backed No | 0c | 11,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…3e93backed No | 0c | 9,950$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…4baebacked Yes | 40c | 6,284$2,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,792.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 37c | 5,427$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,436.2 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…e888backed Yes | 26c | 4,000$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,946.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 20c | 2,107$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,694.19 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,786.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cd…f566backed Yes | 5c | 1,100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +105%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 835.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.12 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 17c | 795.27$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.85 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 11c | 749.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.98 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 7c | 671.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.12 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 650$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a55…eb88backed Yes | 76c | 638.69$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 10c | 500$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.2 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 461.59$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.54 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 11c | 419.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.33 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.4 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 6c | 347.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.49 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 343.88$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.01 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e93…e71abacked Yes | 13c | 302.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 14c | 292.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.3 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 8c | 290.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.11 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…9396backed Yes | 30c | 210$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4f…6913backed Yes | 44c | 204.12$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 5c | 202.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.91 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79db…7c93backed Yes | 57c | 199.47$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 50c | 197.84$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.38 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 68c | 166.66$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…4dcfbacked Yes | 7c | 156.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +601%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3205…cc50backed No | 8c | 128.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab20…5c57backed Yes | 19c | 120.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x090b…2f01backed Yes | 9c | 119$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.46per pick | 14cpaid | +439.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…77c8backed Yes | 24c | 113.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.88 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdf…adc5backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0734…22d3backed Yes | 15c | 106.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +186.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84a0…63a4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 23cpaid | +184.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…7875backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c4…909dbacked No | 79c | 79.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x990c…5ccfbacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 19cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe872…6f4dbacked Yes | 27c | 73.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 28c | 70.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfca7…6113backed Yes | 18c | 66.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +456.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0055…156fbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d24…1f77backed Yes | 26c | 46.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c19…cc52backed Yes | 47c | 33.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…a575backed Yes | 80c | 28.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…4680backed No | 70c | 21.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…31f8backed No | 74c | 13.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 19-25?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,100 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 19-25?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 January 19-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.