South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca806b1f6422afc25372aa49cf1d08ba6dbb95a8fbe25eec349d6d5acae99727
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 69c | 20,000$13,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,200 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 31c | 18,400$5,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,704 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 40c | 3,711$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.98 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 64c | 2,050$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.5 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed No | 31c | 1,600$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 144 | 22.9%33 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 67c | 994.4$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.99 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 64c | 736.41$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.41 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 34c | 628.32$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.68 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 37c | 540.8$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.61 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Yes | 63c | 472.98$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 61c | 470.31$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.9 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 31c | 350.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.86 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 40c | 173$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 35c | 152.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…e181backed Yes | 80c | 107.25$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…bdafbacked No | 40c | 103.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 60c | 81.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Yes | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…dc85backed Yes | 68c | 71.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 60c | 66.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…cb83backed Yes | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b5…49d5backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf98e…25c0backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc1…830fbacked Yes | 63c | 26.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…a89fbacked Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…8458backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked Yes | 63c | 20.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a7…31aebacked Yes | 70c | 18.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc668…f670backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will Fortaleza EC win on 2025-10-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.