Commodities · resolved market
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca9bbfb7d372ce30cd648d21fb9353dad45b296c07c7724634c88829fa48439b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 56c | 3,398$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,912.72 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 8c | 1,455$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 49c | 1,000$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Down | 10c | 713.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 26c | 707.18$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.83 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Up | 47c | 466.01$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.99 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Up | 48c | 357.01$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.65 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Up | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…0d2cbacked Down | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 45c | 188$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc84e…13b8backed Down | 6c | 168.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…df57backed Down | 68c | 161.36$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 72cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Down | 59c | 152.54$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…7d86backed Up | 49c | 128$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b5…e85ebacked Up | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…0a4dbacked Up | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Up | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…91f5backed Up | 33c | 65.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Up | 41c | 51.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Down | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…5864backed Down | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 58cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…cfb1backed Down | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed Up | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Up | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Up | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2a…b7dfbacked Up | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…4193backed Up | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3f…699abacked Up | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…c17bbacked Up | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…8631backed Down | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Down | 65c | 28.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Up | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…ddafbacked Down | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.