Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaa41616fcce1ac103d4e13bb266f3880ec62e8a451d1c63024548aca2aa1236
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 20c | 841.34$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.17 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 29c | 697.26$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.28 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 342.38$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 235.03$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 216.14$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 193$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 75c | 177.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 169.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 165.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 165$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 150.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 142.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 137.04$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 26c | 130.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 128$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 68c | 122$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 120.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb1…1f81backed Yes | 35c | 115.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 22c | 113$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 34c | 113$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 112.87$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 34c | 83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 75c | 80.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 77.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 75.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 68.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 30c | 65.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 70c | 53.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 70c | 50.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 75c | 45.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 67c | 44.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 75c | 30.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 26.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 79c | 23.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 22.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 73c | 21.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 73c | 18.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked No | 74c | 18.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 78c | 18.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 65c | 18.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.