Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fbec5da5d7bac5d701064e2609d3cf11c7baf0e0fa0d86188c73e9468c18239
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 314.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 248.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 6c | 199$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 188.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 63c | 188.54$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.66 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 27c | 182.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 144.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 141.04$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 138.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 126.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 125.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 78c | 124.82$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 107.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 68c | 106$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 85.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 33c | 78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 27c | 73.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…c435backed Yes | 16c | 70.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 64.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 57.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 69c | 56.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 20c | 53.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 25c | 50.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 77c | 49.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddd…7996backed No | 70c | 42.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 69c | 28.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 76c | 21.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 79c | 20.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 19.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 78c | 19.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 17.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 80c | 14.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 78c | 13.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.