Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2776dd639378643ce7a5c4a1695ac517ab0809dc3eda79f3efcaa92ecf3a2af3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 527.32$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 486.88$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 13c | 364.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 7c | 301.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 7c | 280$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 245.12$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 21c | 231.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 19c | 200.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 17c | 149.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 147$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 133.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 125$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 120.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 35c | 113$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 108.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 11c | 97.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 92.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 20c | 87.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 85.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 62c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed No | 62c | 72.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 55c | 69.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 19c | 59.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 58.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 64c | 56.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 50.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 50.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…4439backed Yes | 35c | 46.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 64c | 45.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 63c | 42.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…4856backed Yes | 38c | 39.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 74c | 33.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 34c | 33.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8579…ed5dbacked No | 66c | 33.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 32.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…4328backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 64c | 29.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcda9…fee5backed No | 65c | 23.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked Yes | 64c | 22.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 22.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 63c | 20.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed No | 65c | 17.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 67c | 14.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 77c | 14.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.