Euroleague · resolved market
KK Crvena Zvezda vs. Virtus Bologna
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaac6519dcb5f0b9ea615e639e48cfddf7cc7917d84119d070fc2bc1f0faf404
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- KK Crvena Zvezdaof KK Crvena Zvezda, Virtus Bologna
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Virtus Bologna | 29c | 4,004$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.87 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 75c | 3,481$2,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.32 | 145 | 42.1%61 W · 84 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Virtus Bologna | 3c | 2,501$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Virtus Bologna | 2c | 2,062$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Virtus Bologna | 44c | 1,592$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 71c | 1,479$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.24 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…392cbacked Virtus Bologna | 34c | 1,015$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Virtus Bologna | 30c | 966.67$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 68c | 536.84$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.17 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 70c | 488.56$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.57 | 222 | 31.5%70 W · 152 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 74c | 483.25$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.88 | 369 | 39.8%147 W · 222 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 71c | 394$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.26 | 91 | 36.3%33 W · 58 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 72c | 283.35$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.26 | 275 | 57.5%158 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 72c | 216.67$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5204…1ca0backed Virtus Bologna | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Virtus Bologna | 27c | 180$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 59c | 148.59$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 72c | 136.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 77c | 135$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 67c | 131.31$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 70c | 124.32$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Virtus Bologna | 26c | 115$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Virtus Bologna | 26c | 115$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Virtus Bologna | 27c | 112$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Virtus Bologna | 26c | 111$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…22d6backed Virtus Bologna | 28c | 102.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Virtus Bologna | 25c | 93.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Virtus Bologna | 27c | 89.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 314 | 46.2%145 W · 169 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 57c | 74.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Virtus Bologna | 26c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 66c | 57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Virtus Bologna | 27c | 53.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Virtus Bologna | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 74c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Virtus Bologna | 27c | 45.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 122 | 68.9%84 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Virtus Bologna | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…ca38backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ee…012fbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…e30ebacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 61cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…0f54backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 74c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…7ed2backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…e26cbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ae…89d9backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.