Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaba610eb68d44c5b1e50b995ef15838a37ef001bae3cd4f818d71b4c1f7c434
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 23c | 520.52$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.46 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 483.5$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 437.22$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 22c | 379.74$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.05 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 58c | 377.51$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.9 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…0506backed Yes | 18c | 350.09$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.16 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 11c | 350$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.5 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 4c | 318.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.26 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 8c | 316.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.09 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 14c | 241.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.05 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 21c | 217.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.74 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 44c | 200$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.82 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 5c | 199.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 11c | 194.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.05 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 72c | 150.43$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.96 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 23c | 150$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.59 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 11c | 148.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.33 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…23c8backed Yes | 52c | 128.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 16c | 125.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.62 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed Yes | 13c | 119.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.79 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 32c | 118.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2e…7c75backed Yes | 16c | 116.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 114.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 103.52$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 78c | 93.16$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 17c | 79.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 17c | 72.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 16c | 72.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 24c | 62.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 24c | 55.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 33c | 47.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 39.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 63c | 34.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 63c | 31.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 77c | 30.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 78c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or higher on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.