Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58b6b7fb9a061c795fd2cf5135c9e5490fbd5e0b4061fbf7714bafd3bdeba9ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 3c | 654.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 439.31$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 419.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 4c | 377.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x026e…9505backed Yes | 4c | 349.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…0506backed Yes | 24c | 307.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 271.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 10c | 212.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 26c | 143.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 123.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 117.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 12c | 103.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed Yes | 23c | 88.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 28c | 86.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 81.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 33c | 75.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 28c | 73.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 75c | 68.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 63.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…c68dbacked Yes | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 79c | 59.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 21c | 59.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae3…5851backed Yes | 25c | 59.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 51.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…befdbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 24c | 44.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 24c | 43.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…fa84backed Yes | 28c | 43.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 80c | 41.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x837e…6d72backed Yes | 28c | 36.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 79c | 33.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 80c | 29.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 80c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…469cbacked No | 76c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +156.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…c5d4backed No | 76c | 25.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 74c | 25.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e8…b761backed No | 73c | 21.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 19.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 70c | 19.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8043…61abbacked No | 73c | 18.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 77c | 14.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or higher on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.