Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcacdbcfa0e03a3f5bde1344704fce9b5992f2954df9016a378499293162d1a44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e23…1c3dbacked Over | 79c | 2,527$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.18 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4a…823abacked Over | 75c | 1,500$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.7 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 20c | 1,220$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.76 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 25c | 1,185$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 170 | 40.6%69 W · 101 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 16c | 1,131$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.88 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 22c | 578.19$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.53 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Under | 12c | 559.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Over | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…52c5backed Under | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12d…f0dbbacked Over | 76c | 393.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.47 | 149 | 56.4%84 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 73c | 391.38$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.67 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed Under | 22c | 385.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 246 | 36.6%90 W · 156 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Over | 77c | 190.9$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked Under | 26c | 176.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Under | 23c | 172$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 25c | 163.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Under | 27c | 157.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194e…2d46backed Under | 25c | 73.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1ce7backed Over | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…aa99backed Over | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…fd49backed Over | 74c | 43.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 148 | 68.9%102 W · 46 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18dd…6bf2backed Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Over | 74c | 24.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Over | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 3.5this page
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION (BO5) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION - Game 1 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION - Game 3 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION - Game 4 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Game 4: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)PARIVISION won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-2.5) vs BetBoom Team (+2.5)BetBoom Team won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.