Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b25266e945ed832f88db08b80302ab254ece2cc90f498eb310230f01de57815
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89f1…4ea8backed Over | 32c | 382.75$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Under | 67c | 290.45$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7093…a798backed Over | 40c | 252.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 40c | 245.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Under | 72c | 180.01$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Over | 39c | 164.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed Under | 54c | 158.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Under | 63c | 157.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Over | 26c | 118$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Over | 27c | 115.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed Under | 63c | 95.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 60c | 92.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 36c | 88.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 170 | 40.6%69 W · 101 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ba…4212backed Under | 64c | 88.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Over | 28c | 81.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Over | 37c | 56.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Over | 36c | 54.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…d0dbbacked Over | 38c | 40.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked Under | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 195 | 47.7%93 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…f718backed Under | 73c | 37.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…355abacked Under | 62c | 30.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Under | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION (BO5) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION - Game 1 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION - Game 3 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION - Game 4 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Game 4: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)PARIVISION won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-2.5) vs BetBoom Team (+2.5)BetBoom Team won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.