Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcad1ae4a9b01dd0c4cdc73b5e3b927d76881c0ef3593b32ad642f42e8308bcd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7d4…34e1backed Yes | 43c | 468.02$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +160.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 179.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed Yes | 23c | 160.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 24c | 159.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 146.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 135.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 77c | 129.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 79c | 127.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 124.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 97.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 20c | 96.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 71c | 93.63$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…dd19backed Yes | 23c | 86.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 51c | 84.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 31c | 80.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 79.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 78c | 76.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 74.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 24c | 69.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 67.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 32c | 65.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3919…d70cbacked No | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 29c | 62.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 67c | 58.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…32bebacked Yes | 27c | 54.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 54.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 32c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 32c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 50c | 39.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 39.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 48c | 35.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 42c | 28.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…53a6backed Yes | 35c | 28.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed No | 76c | 28.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 77c | 23.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 20.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 19.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7980backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on May 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.