Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa34b4059d1997a07606c91c199587423ec80f499b7b9a31f909347ba56248094
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 1c | 1,118$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 627.84$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.95 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 73c | 602.49$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.18 | 167 | 95.8%160 W · 7 L | +62.3wins | +0.37per pick | 58cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 86+0.32 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 390.37$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.92 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3919…d70cbacked No | 77c | 327.15$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 188.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 149.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.69 | 2,397 | 79.5%1,906 W · 491 L | +101.5wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 146$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.23 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 26c | 142.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.52 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 118.23$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.82 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 28c | 109.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 71c | 104.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 34c | 100.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 68c | 99.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 252 | 75.8%191 W · 61 L | +25.0wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 20c | 99.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.84 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 26c | 91.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 17c | 90.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 1,239 | 30.1%373 W · 866 L | -6.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 87.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ee…e0dabacked Yes | 30c | 87.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +238.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 67c | 87.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 18c | 86.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.83 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 56c | 81.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 676 | 25.7%174 W · 502 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 793 | 63.4%503 W · 290 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 72c | 76.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 3,046 | 33.5%1,021 W · 2,025 L | +12.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 74c | 75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8771…7e97backed Yes | 31c | 74.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…34d7backed No | 68c | 73.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 72.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.87 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 26c | 70.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…66dbbacked No | 78c | 69.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 53.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 2,422 | 35.5%860 W · 1,562 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 68c | 50.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 862 | 30.7%265 W · 597 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…264fbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 74cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x773f…76bbbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 26c | 49.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 168 | 45.2%76 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 69c | 46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 27c | 43.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 41.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 40.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 1,595 | 78.6%1,253 W · 342 L | +41.1wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…f8c6backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 36c | 35.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 31.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 79c | 26.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x73c7…0cfdbacked No | 74c | 24.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 65c | 15.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 69c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 75c | 14.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 269 | 69.5%187 W · 82 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 76c | 13.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 13.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2,228 | 57%1,269 W · 959 L | +69.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.