CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs OlyBet SB (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcade6205a22fcd0c3add2193911c3513d9d2f1985674bd12d8af2f3b32119843
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OlyBet SBof ASTRAL, OlyBet SB
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbec7…5977backed OlyBet SB | 72c | 1,801$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.2 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc24…c8c4backed ASTRAL | 51c | 1,011$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.41 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed ASTRAL | 3c | 900.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…3309backed OlyBet SB | 58c | 865.08$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.08 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked ASTRAL | 30c | 810.56$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.5 | 227 | 54.2%123 W · 104 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed ASTRAL | 60c | 695.36$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.12 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed OlyBet SB | 38c | 611.27$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed OlyBet SB | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fc…d802backed ASTRAL | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked ASTRAL | 59c | 435.18$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.31 | 449 | 57.5%258 W · 191 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked ASTRAL | 23c | 329.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed ASTRAL | 50c | 322.73$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.73 | 970 | 40.7%395 W · 575 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e1…8b17backed ASTRAL | 56c | 322$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.32 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked ASTRAL | 54c | 321.6$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 362 | 53.3%193 W · 169 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed ASTRAL | 41c | 300.73$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.32 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked OlyBet SB | 50c | 290$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 275 | 30.9%85 W · 190 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed ASTRAL | 57c | 263.3$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 503 | 40.2%202 W · 301 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed OlyBet SB | 45c | 216.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed OlyBet SB | 50c | 201.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.8 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c21…c02bbacked ASTRAL | 54c | 200.58$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.34 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked ASTRAL | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked ASTRAL | 50c | 78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x031f…01afbacked OlyBet SB | 77c | 68.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…29dfbacked ASTRAL | 75c | 66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…69f7backed ASTRAL | 60c | 63.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed OlyBet SB | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3457…0161backed OlyBet SB | 68c | 59.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb16…9757backed OlyBet SB | 51c | 57.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…7181backed OlyBet SB | 46c | 56.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…11ddbacked OlyBet SB | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…ceeabacked OlyBet SB | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…2d88backed ASTRAL | 58c | 46.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78b…a688backed ASTRAL | 66c | 27.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked ASTRAL | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…37a9backed ASTRAL | 59c | 18.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…7292backed ASTRAL | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 69cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs OlyBet SB (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 WinnerOlyBet SB won
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs OlyBet SB - Map 2 WinnerASTRAL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.