Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaea3f202f5dc37e72f5be089f54e679d37a7bd86a552221f7361572d7b54820
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof Inner Circle, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7600…4478backed Inner Circle | 49c | 2,058$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.88 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Team Nemesis | 28c | 1,378$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.01 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…5874backed Inner Circle | 78c | 1,250$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Inner Circle | 39c | 1,144$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.67 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Nemesis | 53c | 1,113$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.88 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Nemesis | 50c | 913.7$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.85 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Inner Circle | 56c | 865.37$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.35 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Team Nemesis | 34c | 820.45$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.4 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked Inner Circle | 72c | 592.7$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…3241backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 540$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Nemesis | 27c | 531.74$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.64 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Inner Circle | 45c | 454.37$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.05 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team Nemesis | 44c | 416.15$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.33 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Team Nemesis | 54c | 392.56$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.98 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Nemesis | 48c | 294.31$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.45 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Team Nemesis | 8c | 248.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 204 | 42.2%86 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked Team Nemesis | 54c | 236.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.22 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Inner Circle | 46c | 220$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Inner Circle | 68c | 213.79$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e51…71d4backed Inner Circle | 52c | 188.71$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Inner Circle | 61c | 165.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Inner Circle | 51c | 140.07$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Team Nemesis | 25c | 135.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Nemesis | 53c | 128.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Team Nemesis | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Team Nemesis | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Team Nemesis | 21c | 124$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Team Nemesis | 21c | 124$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Inner Circle | 48c | 115.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb60…39d9backed Team Nemesis | 32c | 104.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…0f85backed Inner Circle | 68c | 104.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 191 | 45.5%87 W · 104 L | +13.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Team Nemesis | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 176 | 36.9%65 W · 111 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Nemesis | 60c | 98.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Nemesis | 15c | 97.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…1320backed Team Nemesis | 15c | 94.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…b26abacked Team Nemesis | 35c | 92.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Team Nemesis | 21c | 91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Team Nemesis | 21c | 91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Inner Circle | 57c | 87.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc9…e4afbacked Inner Circle | 55c | 80.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…1f72backed Inner Circle | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 318 | 65.1%207 W · 111 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Inner Circle | 48c | 74.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Nemesis | 23c | 68.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Team Nemesis | 54c | 68.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddbd…bcb5backed Team Nemesis | 60c | 64.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 140 | 30.7%43 W · 97 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Inner Circle | 47c | 54.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Team Nemesis | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Inner Circle | 68c | 44.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57b…c48fbacked Team Nemesis | 63c | 39.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54d7…55c2backed Inner Circle | 66c | 36.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Nemesis | 66c | 30.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb354…7d49backed Inner Circle | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…1bfebacked Team Nemesis | 59c | 20.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsInner Circle won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerInner Circle won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.