Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf866ecb4d907e236d96860b9962ab2a858151f91183c4cd1b634391f6cfc85f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof Inner Circle, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba38…e406backed Inner Circle | 54c | 938.35$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.69 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Team Nemesis | 47c | 843.71$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.61 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Team Nemesis | 46c | 660.7$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.92 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Team Nemesis | 37c | 636$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.7 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…2a39backed Team Nemesis | 29c | 510.82$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.25 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdde5…d1acbacked Inner Circle | 54c | 403.56$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.3 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Inner Circle | 55c | 374.8$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.66 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Team Nemesis | 35c | 309.36$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Inner Circle | 41c | 299.98$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.88 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed Inner Circle | 50c | 269.6$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.9 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Team Nemesis | 10c | 235.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Inner Circle | 70c | 218.62$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…1320backed Team Nemesis | 19c | 196.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Inner Circle | 69c | 186.77$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Team Nemesis | 29c | 166.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Inner Circle | 58c | 165.57$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Team Nemesis | 48c | 106.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b5…c0aebacked Inner Circle | 46c | 105.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Inner Circle | 50c | 105$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Team Nemesis | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Inner Circle | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Nemesis | 51c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…ef1dbacked Team Nemesis | 46c | 98.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked Team Nemesis | 46c | 97.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x422d…7e39backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 96.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Team Nemesis | 42c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed Team Nemesis | 46c | 79.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Team Nemesis | 28c | 76.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…3326backed Team Nemesis | 46c | 65.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21e0…369dbacked Team Nemesis | 42c | 53.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Inner Circle | 45c | 53.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Inner Circle | 39c | 51.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…a552backed Inner Circle | 72c | 46.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 182 | 53.3%97 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Inner Circle | 43c | 44.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Inner Circle | 55c | 43.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Nemesis | 59c | 43.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Inner Circle | 50c | 42.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…96f4backed Inner Circle | 56c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Inner Circle | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Nemesis | 55c | 27.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205a…682abacked Team Nemesis | 46c | 26.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Team Nemesis | 51c | 26.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2661…6c28backed Inner Circle | 53c | 20.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Team Nemesis | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Inner Circle | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 218 | 51.8%113 W · 105 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6a…ad0bbacked Inner Circle | 55c | 18.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerInner Circle won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 WinnerInner Circle won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.