Mls · resolved market
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcafb9ec619922c4bef2a3d54c63c1dd15c15cf9d4b081cfb8a68a3f9231c35f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 17c | 560.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.35 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Yes | 8c | 495.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 13c | 347$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Yes | 17c | 271.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 19c | 252.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 18c | 207.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 80c | 194$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 22c | 180.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 14c | 142.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b94…c347backed Yes | 11c | 140$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Yes | 20c | 133.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 80c | 126.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 80c | 116.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 78c | 90.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 79c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…5777backed No | 75c | 53.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 74c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chicago Fire FC vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-09?No won
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.