Mls · resolved market
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf3c0d2111201b72aa8bdd9229d6168a127a37652278b9e06a7d9476cdc48473
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 73c | 14,680$10,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,929.47 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 24c | 4,720$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.25 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 16c | 4,241$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,546.07 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 22c | 2,974$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.19 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…a2a7backed Yes | 73c | 2,750$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked No | 17c | 2,550$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.48 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 2,450$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.04 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 17c | 2,227$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.56 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked No | 12c | 2,000$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 15c | 1,886$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.96 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed No | 17c | 1,758$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.9 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.05 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 28c | 881$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.91 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 80c | 699.58$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.53 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 18c | 624.77$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.03 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 77c | 615.64$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.41 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 29c | 576.07$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.19 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked No | 3c | 565.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 54c | 525$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.86 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 42c | 500$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.6 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 47c | 478.64$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked No | 25c | 404.64$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 94 | 37.2%35 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 16c | 394.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.26 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked No | 18c | 326.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 22c | 300$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.12 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…d5a3backed No | 15c | 286.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 16c | 285.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 40c | 280.23$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.43 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Yes | 19c | 238.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed No | 62c | 227.27$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.81 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57bb…9302backed Yes | 76c | 225.34$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Yes | 17c | 225$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.75 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 29c | 219.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 38c | 217.27$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.88 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 62c | 179.68$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.05 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked No | 39c | 179.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked No | 28c | 177.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 42c | 160.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed No | 26c | 149.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed No | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 17c | 112.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.32 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 75c | 108.35$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 20c | 100.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3201…27a4backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Yes | 45c | 84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 73c | 83.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 52c | 83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…5f75backed Yes | 45c | 78.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed No | 50c | 78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Yes | 18c | 72.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked No | 23c | 57.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked No | 29c | 50.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed No | 29c | 50.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked No | 29c | 50.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Yes | 71c | 49.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc407…0875backed No | 62c | 30.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac03…f019backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d55…f50cbacked Yes | 52c | 19.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb6…50fcbacked No | 60c | 18.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-09?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw?No won
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.