TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: 1st Half O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,383
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,263

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,383 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…d7a0backed Over29c16,968$4,859 inWon+$12,108.5914829.7%44 W · 104 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under71c13,839$9,876 inLost-$9,875.695,75745.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L+94.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Under71c961$683 inLost-$682.7115045.3%68 W · 82 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under71c795.57$565 inLost-$564.892,33551.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L+2.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under72c198.55$143 inLost-$142.728,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under73c123.34$89 inLost-$89.462,61154.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe70…7533backed Under71c100$71 inLost-$713452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a64…683ebacked Under71c100$71 inLost-$716550.8%33 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Under72c98.93$71 inLost-$71.2321044.3%93 W · 117 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under73c98.06$72 inLost-$71.5840451.2%207 W · 197 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Under72c74.91$54 inLost-$53.6350656.3%285 W · 221 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Under74c67.57$50 inLost-$506561.5%40 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Under74c66.9$50 inLost-$49.5655250.2%277 W · 275 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8041…fc83backed Over26c48.08$12 inWon+$35.78453.6%45 W · 39 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55a3…fd93backed Over25c40$10 inWon+$301540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Under75c40$30 inLost-$309051.1%46 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Under72c34.72$25 inLost-$2564633.1%214 W · 432 L-24.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2470…7ae6backed Under72c27.42$20 inLost-$19.742626.9%7 W · 19 L-5.7wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-45.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Under73c25.12$18 inLost-$18.2846449.6%230 W · 234 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a60…7b81backed Under74c25.01$19 inLost-$18.512254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd27d…fa96backed Under74c23.61$17 inLost-$17.472070%14 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Under72c20.85$15 inLost-$1515651.9%81 W · 75 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Under73c18.55$14 inLost-$13.5133152.6%174 W · 157 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a4f…5ec9backed Under72c14$10 inLost-$10.081442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-28.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.