TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,065
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,030

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,065 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Over20c4,606$919 inLost-$919.195,76245.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L+94.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under68c2,787$1,901 inWon+$885.552,28734.3%784 W · 1,503 L-30.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over3c2,101$64 inLost-$63.931,32857%757 W · 571 L+57.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61d4…3593backed Under55c1,116$615 inWon+$500.4329138.1%111 W · 180 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over43c849.09$363 inLost-$362.773,75538.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over22c400$88 inLost-$889714.4%14 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-47.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over5c261.01$13 inLost-$13.051,53745.2%695 W · 842 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under61c253.06$154 inWon+$98.9953836.8%198 W · 340 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over33c230$75 inLost-$74.8899259.1%586 W · 406 L+108.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x76bc…fccabacked Over44c208.33$91 inLost-$91.4412738.6%49 W · 78 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+96.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under66c151.61$100 inWon+$51.613265.6%21 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e4…3876backed Under67c149.25$100 inWon+$49.251872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf22b…8f84backed Under72c138.89$100 inWon+$38.892365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under60c137.89$82 inWon+$55.8189846.1%414 W · 484 L-11.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under59c123.44$73 inWon+$50.3357540.2%231 W · 344 L+2.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under70c103$72 inWon+$31.1689645.4%407 W · 489 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked Under57c88.6$50 inWon+$38.11770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under54c70.7$38 inWon+$32.411,03849.4%513 W · 525 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over18c60.44$11 inLost-$10.888,11248.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L+27.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8bc…1523backed Over25c60$15 inLost-$15650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+108.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Over51c58.82$30 inLost-$3013850%69 W · 69 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Over44c41.07$18 inLost-$18.0133152.6%174 W · 157 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19d8…965abacked Under58c34.46$20 inWon+$14.479026.7%24 W · 66 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e82…7ab7backed Under50c30$15 inWon+$152050%10 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ad…34cebacked Over50c20$10 inLost-$101283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.