Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb267576fd75d7eea43849a09846a05ac4e162a72e1bc1e4a94362cd402ba3ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,354$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.04 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 20c | 1,100$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.41 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 70c | 947.19$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.76 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…8188backed Yes | 71c | 635.44$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.68 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +359.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 49c | 428$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.21 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…8109backed Yes | 5c | 421.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 317 | 2.5%8 W · 309 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes | 10c | 344.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.65 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 279.95$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 250.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 5c | 194.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 161.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 15c | 155$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.34 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 22c | 146.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 8c | 144.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 18c | 143$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 121$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 24c | 114.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c2…d7a3backed No | 18c | 113.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 110.38$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 10c | 110$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde18…72d1backed No | 48c | 103.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 12c | 95.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 94.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 83.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 53c | 75.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0a…8ea3backed Yes | 14c | 70.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed No | 44c | 67.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 17c | 62.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 55.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 26c | 51.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 57c | 49.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 53c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b60…558dbacked No | 77c | 43.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 78c | 34.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 32.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x943a…8234backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd51…d759backed No | 58c | 19.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f81…7ce2backed No | 68c | 15.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.