Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb54367d7beddf1e8bffda254ce7fe118084dfe1f77b280cd90d333e7adf26c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Fonseca
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f3c…2f57backed Fonseca | 42c | 9,500$3,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,989.49 | 307 | 40.7%125 W · 182 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Alcaraz | 58c | 9,356$5,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,929.47 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Alcaraz | 67c | 661.75$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.83 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Fonseca | 35c | 658.98$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.66 | 242 | 29.8%72 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a73…e1adbacked Fonseca | 32c | 618.95$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fonseca | 35c | 562$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.61 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Fonseca | 35c | 468.86$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.1 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…4392backed Alcaraz | 65c | 430.4$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.64 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Alcaraz | 65c | 394.8$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.8 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4696…e741backed Alcaraz | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Fonseca | 36c | 308.37$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.91 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Alcaraz | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Alcaraz | 65c | 153.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4213…6940backed Alcaraz | 65c | 152.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…2297backed Alcaraz | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Alcaraz | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Alcaraz | 58c | 93.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc110…f3eabacked Alcaraz | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb6…67edbacked Alcaraz | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…238fbacked Fonseca | 70c | 35.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…4968backed Fonseca | 47c | 34.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…d83abacked Fonseca | 34c | 33.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 131 | 35.9%47 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e8…4577backed Alcaraz | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Alcaraz | 60c | 25.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Alcaraz | 62c | 23.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0d…fa06backed Alcaraz | 64c | 21.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5)this page
- Alcaraz vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Fonseca: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Joao FonsecaCarlos Alcaraz won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs FonsecaAlcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.