Tennis · resolved market
Alcaraz vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdafe1b4d74e848cc4699c7811dadd3b6141c8573237dd77ee21f3cdb19cf865b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,000 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…70d8backed Under | 50c | 5,065$2,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,532.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…d9c6backed Under | 50c | 3,069$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.5 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 50c | 744$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +18.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 50c | 589.46$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.63 | 347 | 45.2%157 W · 190 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 584.04$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.02 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…6112backed Under | 50c | 365$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 44c | 323.54$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.45 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed Over | 56c | 286.63$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.31 | 155 | 48.4%75 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Under | 62c | 221$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…5e13backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 81.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…a1d3backed Over | 55c | 55.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…4854backed Over | 51c | 50.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 474 | 53.2%252 W · 222 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4c…b8fabacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c84…ac9abacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alcaraz vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Alcaraz vs. Fonseca: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Joao FonsecaCarlos Alcaraz won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs FonsecaAlcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5)Alcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.