Asian League · resolved market
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb68c33d99155164d219a3eeff12c013df5b10a173e999df13688bbc8d75df91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,901 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 25c | 1,209$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.06 | 105 | 25.7%27 W · 78 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 8c | 1,174$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15cc…6268backed Yes | 25c | 810$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 74c | 802.07$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.54 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 76c | 659.74$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.74 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 27c | 632.4$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.18 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Yes | 25c | 623.77$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.94 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 24c | 590.44$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.12 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 73c | 208.12$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 25c | 201.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 24c | 168.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…b7f2backed No | 71c | 133$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked No | 75c | 124$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +94%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 27c | 106.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 27c | 106.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5b…d608backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 76c | 78.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…b9f9backed Yes | 28c | 67.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 25c | 55.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 25c | 53.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 48.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked No | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 80c | 42.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 73c | 25.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed No | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-03-20?No won
- Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-03-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.