Bundesliga · resolved market
Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb796a39bfae143c5de9c49bb2a7a2247dc99c6bc2b4f2501a8eadc72ab36d88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Over | 20c | 1,985$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.67 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 44c | 694.91$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.71 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 511.74$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.93 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x308b…b223backed Over | 41c | 414.63$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 342.98$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.09 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 59c | 211$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.51 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 59c | 210.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.51 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…9fc9backed Under | 56c | 189.91$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…c692backed Over | 39c | 138.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8c…db16backed Over | 36c | 39.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 0.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 5.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: VfL Wolfsburg O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-2.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)Hannover 96 won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)Hannover 96 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.