Bundesliga · resolved market
Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2265514ad45ba0aa13dd69d7d51960c3c4ffad8c7f1aec9195c91fb0963af9a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 1c | 3,251$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 23c | 919.88$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.29 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcf…e455backed Over | 76c | 654.97$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 646.91$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Over | 50c | 618.32$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa3…e22bbacked Under | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 52c | 369.81$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.47 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 6c | 330$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 24c | 312.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 54c | 310.15$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…92c1backed Under | 50c | 303.84$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +91%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 4c | 270.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 42c | 232.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c57…a7debacked Under | 16c | 221.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 68c | 193$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.24 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 60c | 164.49$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…1a0fbacked Under | 15c | 160.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…4a1fbacked Over | 47c | 105.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 15c | 102.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 23c | 101.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Over | 79c | 97.14$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…b821backed Under | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 59c | 86.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 22c | 82.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Under | 47c | 71.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 58c | 65.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d71…ca3ebacked Over | 57c | 41.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 73c | 40.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 51c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…1035backed Under | 68c | 29.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…4a14backed Over | 61c | 24.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 0.5this page
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 5.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: VfL Wolfsburg O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-2.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)Hannover 96 won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)Hannover 96 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.