Bundesliga · resolved market
Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03802198de412de415fdc49a6b8d5aa90f67d42a00fef3e47dbf274e43e1003f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 21c | 3,445$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.21 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 49c | 2,559$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.24 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Under | 43c | 2,222$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.5 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…18f1backed Over | 49c | 2,106$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 2,085$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.49 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 74c | 2,046$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 51c | 1,879$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.37 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 59c | 1,738$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.96 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 57c | 1,086$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.26 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…e0ccbacked Under | 44c | 697.67$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 57c | 637.93$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.74 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 65c | 627$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.79 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 37c | 545.24$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.51 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +6.4wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 35c | 499.98$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbe…8807backed Over | 50c | 299.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 37c | 290.95$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 42c | 278$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4727…0ca0backed Over | 57c | 269.04$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…c944backed Over | 57c | 266.67$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1737…2b2fbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 39c | 180$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 58c | 169.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.61 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b7…665abacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Under | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 50c | 77.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Over | 43c | 69.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Under | 39c | 59.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 36c | 50.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 36c | 48.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 44c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Under | 44c | 45.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 59c | 37.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 55c | 36.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +58%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe30f…ab88backed Under | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8c…db16backed Over | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f5…8a1abacked Over | 62c | 32.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Under | 42c | 27.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 40c | 25.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd233…14f3backed Under | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed Under | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…a02dbacked Over | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…2211backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5this page
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 0.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 5.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: VfL Wolfsburg O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-2.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)Hannover 96 won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)Hannover 96 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.