Bundesliga · resolved market
Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85a7d2439ada9a80a474710c22227c0ca670eecb6892c328d8ebc96c3365dde2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 27c | 6,494$1,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,731.95 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 75c | 2,131$1,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.64 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 1,185$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.59 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Under | 59c | 999.99$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…02b5backed Over | 41c | 731$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.71 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 8c | 585.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 42c | 293$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.52 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 58c | 151$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +6.4wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 39c | 141$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 60c | 121.78$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 58c | 105.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…082cbacked Under | 60c | 61.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Over | 27c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 40c | 26.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Over | 39c | 25.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed Under | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed Under | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5this page
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 0.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 5.5Under won
- Hannover 96 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: VfL Wolfsburg O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-2.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)Hannover 96 won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)Hannover 96 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.