Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb88060edf46ed1c1139105c57814ea8822f316f5ebaea867fe63b061ea11d9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 21c | 966.43$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.43 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked No | 24c | 478.46$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.82 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 79c | 473.69$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 345.98$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 18c | 246.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.66 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 16c | 208.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.82 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 24c | 205.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.67 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 9c | 204.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.14 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 7c | 174.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 79c | 154.96$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.8 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 152.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.59 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 140.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.76 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 23c | 140.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.14 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…e027backed Yes | 15c | 135.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 131.82$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed Yes | 23c | 123.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.84 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed No | 77c | 117.74$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.81 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 117.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 14c | 107.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.29 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc26…0f00backed Yes | 21c | 94.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +373.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 23c | 93.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.69 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…32bfbacked No | 59c | 84.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 80.72$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 68c | 66.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 19c | 63.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 18c | 59.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 80c | 57.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 55.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 41c | 45.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 32c | 41.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 31.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 75c | 26.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 72c | 16.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 77c | 15.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 79c | 13.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 57°F or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.