Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x932610db4f9b0aaa6d9b2868f7b55456383db25e410e13a57ae79f154a147360
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 28c | 2,477$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.5 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 1,718$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 72c | 1,409$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.11 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 1c | 1,404$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 1,322$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.67 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 1,295$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.16 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 990.04$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.49 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 31c | 492.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.19 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 70c | 491$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.3 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 32c | 370.7$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.53 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 342.76$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 255.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 240.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 201$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 180.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 73c | 173.12$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 164.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 157.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed No | 76c | 153.85$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 29c | 141.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 141.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 78c | 131$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27bd…5452backed Yes | 25c | 122.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 118.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 113.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 78c | 111$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 29c | 106.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 67c | 105.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 26c | 103.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 26c | 102.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 70c | 92.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 90.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 74.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 71.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 79c | 68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 29c | 64.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 68c | 58.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 57.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 69c | 54.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 75c | 52.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 51.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 30c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 79c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 33.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 25.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 72c | 20.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 75c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed No | 70c | 19.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 67c | 19.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 65c | 17.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 71c | 15.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf099…c6d1backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 79c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 57°F or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.