TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,617
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,500

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,617 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes28c2,477$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.542036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes27c1,718$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.718,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed No72c1,409$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.111,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes1c1,404$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.489741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No70c1,322$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.671,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes27c1,295$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.161,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No71c990.04$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.492,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes31c492.99$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.193,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No70c491$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.31,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No70c400$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed Yes32c370.7$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.5339543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No73c342.76$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes22c255.84$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.364,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes8c240.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.311,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No71c201$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.22,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes34c199.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes27c180.51$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.45,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c6…2b25backed No73c173.12$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5832958.7%193 W · 136 L+17.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes11c164.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.442,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes30c157.62$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.079,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b33…9f80backed No76c153.85$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.334141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes29c141.97$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2775546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No71c141.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.373,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No78c131$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.471,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27bd…5452backed Yes25c122.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-75.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No70c118.1$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.915,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes30c113.91$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.144,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No78c111$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5245162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes29c106.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4513025.4%33 W · 97 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No67c105.27$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.091,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7581…2ca4backed Yes26c103.39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720833.2%69 W · 139 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes26c102.28$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.541,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2877555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3368335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef49…d27bbacked No70c92.26$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6621651.9%112 W · 104 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes21c90.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No78c85$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.44,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes29c80$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.21,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes30c74.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4887629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes15c71.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.086,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No79c68$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.591,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes29c64.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4435137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No71c63.23$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.239,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes29c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.490555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3c…ca16backed No68c58.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4314934.2%51 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No75c57.81$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.64,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No69c54.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.949551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No75c52.48$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9141760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes29c51.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1587437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.597152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.940741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.434846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.255954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes30c35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3567336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No79c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5229354.3%159 W · 134 L-25.6wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-15.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes32c33.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.752,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.46,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.14,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.43,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No74c29.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.72,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No60c25.94$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.384,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf15b…8c10backed No72c20.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.899366.7%62 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No75c20.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0498160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.215961.6%98 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623958.2%139 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.627056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8471…5566backed No70c19.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.853959%23 W · 16 L+7.3wins+0.19per pick40cpaid+38.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed No67c19.27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2742148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No65c17.92$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1916548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked No71c15.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6146549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf099…c6d1backed No80c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-33.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No68c14.81$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7466944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No79c14.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.131,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.