Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7099383598baff8e2ef62db099a080b5ff77b09203169bf198478d1d73bfc8bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 3c | 1,202$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 31c | 1,177$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.71 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 69c | 395.62$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.71 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 312.59$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 229.65$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 217.29$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 174.25$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5259…fc71backed No | 63c | 163.52$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 159.98$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 39c | 126.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 119.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 17c | 118.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 118.1$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 117.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 38c | 104.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 101.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 11c | 101.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 29c | 100.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 91.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 81.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 40c | 77.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 29c | 77.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 75.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 71.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 66c | 69.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 68c | 66.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 64.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 64c | 62.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 69c | 59.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 32c | 51.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 63c | 51.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed No | 54c | 49.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 47.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 66c | 42.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 40.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 39.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 38.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 64c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 48c | 35.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 68c | 33.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 45c | 31.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 40c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 28.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 62c | 22.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…29fdbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 73c | 18.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 57°F or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.