MLB · resolved market
Cubs vs. Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcba5056f4f1ec6813a4d92bae73f40c2cf8615cfcd1fa11a2efc3284bc2c2f1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cubsof Cubs, Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Brewers | 39c | 2,241$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.46 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Brewers | 1c | 1,020$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Cubs | 51c | 1,007$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.86 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Cubs | 60c | 950$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Brewers | 50c | 708.62$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.04 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Cubs | 50c | 640$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Brewers | 49c | 553.02$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.02 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Cubs | 51c | 400$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Cubs | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Brewers | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Brewers | 50c | 280$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Cubs | 52c | 248.15$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.15 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Cubs | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cubs | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cubs | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Brewers | 48c | 154.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Brewers | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Brewers | 52c | 50.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Brewers | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Brewers | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…b560backed Cubs | 53c | 29.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Brewers | 47c | 29.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Cubs | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Cubs | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.