Mls · resolved market
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-05-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbbc20caa92116268806cc3f6a3cf0f3d9cff5b0150f6fb953f741d1b6db4fb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 2c | 2,745$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 23c | 1,691$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.8 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 77c | 1,647$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.8 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16c…a3aabacked No | 77c | 1,413$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 23c | 918.35$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.78 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 20c | 496.78$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +6.0wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 6c | 369.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked No | 77c | 362.18$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7964…c557backed Yes | 27c | 288$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed No | 78c | 256.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 78c | 253.22$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 25c | 240$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842d…2c60backed No | 74c | 155$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 29c | 140.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 73c | 136.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5f…048bbacked No | 74c | 136$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8b03backed No | 76c | 132$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 75c | 129.41$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…44efbacked Yes | 26c | 113.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 73c | 101.48$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f4…1008backed No | 74c | 78.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 23c | 78.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 67.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 80c | 61.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 17c | 60.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 27c | 54.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 68c | 54.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Yes | 27c | 53.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 20c | 53.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d8…7520backed No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 29c | 50.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…b778backed No | 79c | 49.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 74c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 75c | 20.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 79c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 77c | 15.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-05-09?this page
- Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-09?Yes won
- Will Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami CF end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.