Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne City FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbdd6785321608a39817b461cdf134f6dd030e9101745838eced84cbfa18115e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 44c | 11,476$5,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,106.12 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 46c | 4,879$2,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,230.69 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 3,634$2,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607.25 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Under | 54c | 3,605$1,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,658.29 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b7…dbdabacked Under | 56c | 2,679$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.87 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Over | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 57c | 1,474$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.64 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…fdffbacked Under | 70c | 751.26$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 55c | 705$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.25 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 34c | 590.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 44c | 330$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.4 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 30c | 275$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Under | 57c | 82.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 44c | 72.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Under | 74c | 66.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 26c | 66.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 45c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…04d0backed Under | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…4537backed Over | 34c | 39.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Under | 56c | 30.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 44c | 30.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…252bbacked Under | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Under | 65c | 29.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked Under | 55c | 27.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…5c1cbacked Under | 56c | 25.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 55c | 25.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne City FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.