Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne City FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42d6de117f11900077cb1d389616eec0e10520dd6c420e49da69bc6dacb711a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3414…067abacked Over | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.98 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 41c | 3,145$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,867.06 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…dadfbacked Under | 67c | 2,124$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Under | 60c | 1,653$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.49 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Over | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 35c | 811.27$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.55 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 18c | 571.73$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 76c | 431.61$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.25 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Over | 45c | 346.94$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 285.75$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.37 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 16c | 279$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.36 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 34c | 250$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 225.68$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.45 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c19…859cbacked Over | 79c | 216.28$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 46c | 202.24$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…4bbabacked Under | 52c | 193.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 174.81$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.86 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed Over | 79c | 133.55$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.09 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…2be7backed Over | 56c | 91.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Under | 24c | 90$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 80.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 46c | 54.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Under | 49c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 37c | 39.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…a36dbacked Under | 54c | 37.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…b300backed Over | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Over | 48c | 35.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 51c | 30.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a51…14bfbacked Under | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedfd…1432backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed Under | 57c | 24.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 46c | 24.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa985…1ebfbacked Over | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec7…c495backed Over | 50c | 20.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne City FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.