NFL · resolved market
Cardi B and Stefon Diggs breakup before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbea2633d280a8fb00ea56bae14591cc460004f2a4a6ec496180a4f523b89710
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb953…16ccbacked Yes | 12c | 1,155$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ee…85febacked Yes | 9c | 1,097$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…c791backed Yes | 42c | 943.8$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 8c | 900$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf68…3fdebacked Yes | 34c | 699.22$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 61c | 620.53$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.08 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff00…c146backed Yes | 42c | 601.12$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 11c | 596.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 11c | 579.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd124…b1c6backed Yes | 14c | 557.93$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 330$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c6…cf2abacked Yes | 13c | 280$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 260.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 36c | 238.08$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…a3b1backed Yes | 43c | 232.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…4659backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…5adabacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 12c | 175$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 7c | 170.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…fa4ebacked Yes | 16c | 169.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 47c | 126.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +234.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce8e…923fbacked No | 69c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…3166backed Yes | 15c | 86.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 32c | 66.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef2…bc22backed No | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb2…4d80backed Yes | 38c | 52.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…acdfbacked Yes | 26c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 74c | 14.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.