Tennis · resolved market
Set 2 Winner: Shelton vs Nakashima
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbec01fee76fe96d40abc0df1b84e620565799b859f9ee76d39672e93c3d3426
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sheltonof Shelton, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70ad…ae4bbacked Shelton | 74c | 15,965$11,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,217.73 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Nakashima | 26c | 13,524$3,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,582.31 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Shelton | 76c | 2,797$2,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.68 | 631 | 44.1%278 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Nakashima | 25c | 2,229$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.74 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Nakashima | 27c | 1,111$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae6a…de5ebacked Shelton | 66c | 757.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.68 | 244 | 59.4%145 W · 99 L | +21.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Nakashima | 27c | 643$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.61 | 255 | 46.7%119 W · 136 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Nakashima | 34c | 504.72$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.61 | 390 | 46.4%181 W · 209 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nakashima | 27c | 342.97$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Nakashima | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Nakashima | 23c | 167.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31f5…c806backed Nakashima | 34c | 137.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Nakashima | 26c | 121.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Nakashima | 27c | 89.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Nakashima | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…e64abacked Nakashima | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…5df7backed Shelton | 77c | 49.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Nakashima | 27c | 43.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a5…3964backed Shelton | 66c | 40.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Shelton | 66c | 22.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 2 Winner: Shelton vs Nakashimathis page
- Ben Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- National Bank Open: Ben Shelton vs Brandon NakashimaBen Shelton won
- Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs NakashimaShelton won
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)Shelton won
- Shelton vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 23.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.