Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe246d6bff921bcb39a324e5178bb89d56ba6559f1901171aea3b8c45a77fb458
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sheltonof Shelton, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd607…842abacked Shelton | 42c | 3,558$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,057.84 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Shelton | 41c | 2,873$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.29 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Nakashima | 60c | 2,300$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.12 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nakashima | 56c | 2,158$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.94 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Nakashima | 59c | 1,778$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.42 | 631 | 44.1%278 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Nakashima | 59c | 1,729$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.29 | 222 | 52.3%116 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Shelton | 41c | 1,212$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717 | 285 | 43.5%124 W · 161 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Shelton | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.36 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nakashima | 59c | 937$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.72 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6a…de5ebacked Shelton | 45c | 883$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483 | 244 | 59.4%145 W · 99 L | +21.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…f462backed Nakashima | 62c | 673.71$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.64 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Nakashima | 51c | 590.44$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.13 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Nakashima | 22c | 548.63$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.93 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Shelton | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eab…4822backed Shelton | 41c | 465.85$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.85 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +45%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5700…a854backed Shelton | 44c | 364.75$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.26 | 255 | 44.3%113 W · 142 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Shelton | 39c | 342.87$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31f5…c806backed Shelton | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.91 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Nakashima | 65c | 298.01$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.96 | 180 | 59.4%107 W · 73 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Shelton | 38c | 242.84$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.29 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Nakashima | 51c | 240$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Shelton | 34c | 207.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.08 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…3038backed Shelton | 38c | 203.95$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.45 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…456cbacked Shelton | 41c | 178.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.35 | 116 | 56%65 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nakashima | 22c | 168.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Shelton | 38c | 164$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.68 | 332 | 41.6%138 W · 194 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8a…61c3backed Nakashima | 37c | 164$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa71…e758backed Shelton | 41c | 154.71$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Nakashima | 59c | 111.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c3…75abbacked Shelton | 44c | 109.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Nakashima | 59c | 98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 408 | 36.8%150 W · 258 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Nakashima | 53c | 94.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Nakashima | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fc…de4abacked Nakashima | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…37d2backed Shelton | 65c | 75.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Nakashima | 57c | 72.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Nakashima | 35c | 65.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 318 | 42.5%135 W · 183 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Nakashima | 50c | 64.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d5…573bbacked Nakashima | 58c | 62.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Shelton | 38c | 56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb895…b11cbacked Shelton | 41c | 46.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed Nakashima | 63c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 119 | 48.7%58 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…f7a1backed Shelton | 38c | 37.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Nakashima | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…c6f3backed Shelton | 44c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Shelton | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03dd…49c8backed Nakashima | 58c | 28.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 468 | 51.5%241 W · 227 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Shelton | 52c | 28.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fa…070dbacked Shelton | 74c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Nakashima | 59c | 26.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Nakashima | 63c | 20.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 350 | 39.4%138 W · 212 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Nakashima | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Nakashima | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 126 | 57.1%72 W · 54 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)this page
- Ben Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- National Bank Open: Ben Shelton vs Brandon NakashimaBen Shelton won
- Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs NakashimaShelton won
- Set 2 Winner: Shelton vs NakashimaShelton won
- Shelton vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 23.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.