Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Nakashima
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11c7987cda74c943cdb8181464af7a06446f71d568b55c4296931db715c17c71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sheltonof Shelton, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Shelton | 63c | 7,043$4,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,624.42 | 9,161 | 36.1%3,309 W · 5,852 L | -202.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Nakashima | 38c | 5,162$1,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,951.09 | 2,223 | 36.9%821 W · 1,402 L | +40.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21af…f272backed Nakashima | 41c | 3,175$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Nakashima | 56c | 2,887$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.52 | 631 | 44.1%278 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Shelton | 63c | 2,338$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.11 | 407 | 46.4%189 W · 218 L | -15.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Shelton | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.83 | 1,694 | 50.5%856 W · 838 L | +13.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Nakashima | 38c | 1,473$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.39 | 374 | 35.3%132 W · 242 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…732ebacked Nakashima | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 357 | 54.1%193 W · 164 L | +16.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…ae33backed Shelton | 61c | 746.74$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.23 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae6a…de5ebacked Shelton | 61c | 655.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.74 | 256 | 57.8%148 W · 108 L | +19.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Shelton | 70c | 642.69$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.47 | 6,649 | 46.3%3,079 W · 3,570 L | -38.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Nakashima | 39c | 565.41$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.51 | 7,129 | 39.7%2,832 W · 4,297 L | -14.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Shelton | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0936…fb00backed Shelton | 63c | 460$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Shelton | 63c | 309.77$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.77 | 211 | 65.4%138 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4f…4598backed Shelton | 61c | 285.08$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.18 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…b411backed Shelton | 61c | 280$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f51…1252backed Shelton | 61c | 278.69$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…1422backed Shelton | 61c | 275.36$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…e5bcbacked Shelton | 61c | 274.5$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c45…8652backed Shelton | 62c | 267$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…5c3dbacked Shelton | 61c | 263.07$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.43 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Shelton | 62c | 206.68$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 195 | 37.4%73 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab70…774cbacked Shelton | 67c | 186.63$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Shelton | 67c | 142$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 5,553 | 48.6%2,700 W · 2,853 L | +16.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…da77backed Nakashima | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +13.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…efe7backed Shelton | 61c | 106.66$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6974…11b4backed Nakashima | 53c | 101.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed Shelton | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 542 | 41.5%225 W · 317 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7db…d23abacked Shelton | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7519…4d28backed Nakashima | 40c | 97.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Nakashima | 39c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked Nakashima | 46c | 65.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Shelton | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf19…8869backed Nakashima | 47c | 40.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 141 | 38.3%54 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked Nakashima | 41c | 35.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Nakashima | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Shelton | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Nakashimathis page
- Ben Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- National Bank Open: Ben Shelton vs Brandon NakashimaBen Shelton won
- Set 2 Winner: Shelton vs NakashimaShelton won
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)Shelton won
- Shelton vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 23.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.