Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbf0f94f475ab7573d60e5b84f6cfca41325a22133e60963b8dfd72e4180246c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 35c | 1,358$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.37 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 584.6$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 297.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 222.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 164.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 159.97$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 149.78$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 149.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 129.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 126$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 122.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 34c | 110.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 35c | 80.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked No | 65c | 69.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 25c | 67.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 21c | 67.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 34c | 57.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 67c | 57.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 52.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 33c | 49.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 35c | 48.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 29c | 44.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 29c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 28c | 36.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 35.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 30.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 26.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01e1…1243backed No | 79c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 15.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 13.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.