Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Northwestern State Demons (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbf409b240c43e22111a3de4d9146c6cad13fb35e0c61e4edcf73fd2b65a0af0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northwestern State Demonsof Northwestern State Demons, Incarnate Word Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 47c | 2,115$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.79 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Northwestern State Demons | 53c | 2,111$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.07 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Northwestern State Demons | 51c | 867.99$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.56 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Northwestern State Demons | 49c | 299.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 52c | 232.19$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.74 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 51c | 148.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 50c | 141.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 262 | 54.2%142 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Northwestern State Demons | 49c | 132.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 47c | 129.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 219 | 37.4%82 W · 137 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Northwestern State Demons | 54c | 99.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 55c | 85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Incarnate Word Cardinals | 48c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Northwestern State Demons | 56c | 49.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 53c | 30.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 48c | 23.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbb…727fbacked Incarnate Word Cardinals | 47c | 21.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Northwestern State Demons (-2.5)this page
- Incarnate Word Cardinals vs. Northwestern State DemonsNorthwestern State Demons won
- Incarnate Word Cardinals vs. Northwestern State Demons: O/U 139.5Under won
- Incarnate Word Cardinals vs. Northwestern State Demons: O/U 140.5Under won
- Spread: Northwestern State Demons (-1.5)Northwestern State Demons won
- Spread: Northwestern State Demons (-3.5)Northwestern State Demons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.