MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc07aa95dbef6d8e9599d7a8ae1e1ea0de770f63c8145f84f30572af3e902cfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Atlanta Braves, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 79c | 162.81$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Atlanta Braves | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Atlanta Braves | 26c | 55.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 43.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 36.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 35.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 29.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 76c | 29.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 75c | 23.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Toronto Blue Jays | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe425…2eb0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5e…dd17backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…a0fcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa91…7353backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf036…59c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bf…b078backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1213…dafdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8e…58f6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…e1ccbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa025…3a9fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee95…b346backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…98d2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9d…1817backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…ebb7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…45c9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd766…6ed5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…3282backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c2…5160backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc85…3cdbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…9150backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee12…d93bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…4cb3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…6c7cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…d7cabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…a762backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a13…7bacbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015e…bb22backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa478…b871backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb587…56d8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…035cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ca…9877backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…213dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d9…7480backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef07…7740backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020d…b81fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd3…3a14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd0…bc22backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.