MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe825334df06a5784c866f68b54ec56f2cc74d82ade578ad78bb4165314e6ef03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 51c | 62,096$31,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,757.55 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 49c | 30,000$14,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,300 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 16,743$8,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,638.69 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 6,003$2,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,025.75 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 49c | 5,540$2,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,818.16 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 50c | 4,000$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 51c | 3,908$1,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.31 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 2,624$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.83 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.09 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 50c | 1,707$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.04 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 23c | 1,317$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.35 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 49c | 1,250$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.49 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 71c | 1,217$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 75c | 1,205$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.24 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 1,200$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 23c | 967$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.65 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Under | 49c | 750$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.5 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 48c | 709.69$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.03 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 51c | 709.35$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.77 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Under | 51c | 670.24$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.42 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 577.68$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.39 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 49c | 429.68$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.9 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Under | 48c | 396.63$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.25 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 51c | 387.25$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.75 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 31c | 380.85$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.3 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 52c | 354.99$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.22 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 51c | 296.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.42 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 75c | 284.05$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.05 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 29c | 274.45$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 68c | 274.09$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.74 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a12…cba0backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 49c | 190.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Over | 29c | 154.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 51c | 153.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.27 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 149.64$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 69c | 113$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 48c | 99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Under | 51c | 71.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 31c | 67.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 51c | 63.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 51c | 51.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 47c | 48.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 71c | 44.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Over | 36c | 41.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 70c | 39.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 30c | 36.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…5da6backed Over | 50c | 32.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 43c | 32.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 44c | 31.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 68c | 30.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 46c | 30.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 72c | 25.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 55c | 23.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 50c | 21.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 20.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…faf1backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 58c | 19.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 79c | 16.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.