Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc184609dfbbf0550aba013ab75a9a15c99daa8988af66e195b4fe8d81187d11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,505 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 2c | 753.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked Yes | 2c | 607.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 29c | 363.04$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 344$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…e41ebacked Yes | 41c | 340.16$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 8c | 239.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 4c | 232.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 22c | 182.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 142.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 32c | 140.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 122.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 61c | 101.72$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 89.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 37c | 88.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 41c | 88.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 75.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes | 42c | 73.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 68.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 67.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…3d4cbacked Yes | 16c | 64.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 35c | 55.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 31c | 52.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd077…46c0backed No | 46c | 50.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed No | 71c | 49.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 58c | 48.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 33c | 45.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 31c | 40.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 64c | 40.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 35c | 40.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 33.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…1935backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 44c | 22.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 62c | 18.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…bebfbacked No | 80c | 17.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 66c | 17.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 14°C or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 15°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 16°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.