Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Marshall Thundering Herd (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc29ecc8b1b641d5fc5bc830129e21bf71505765e3cb90a2ab329fd6101dae9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- South Alabama Jaguarsof Marshall Thundering Herd, South Alabama Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 45c | 4,272$1,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,332.16 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9b…945abacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 53c | 2,547$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.35 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…159dbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 53c | 2,075$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 53c | 2,052$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.06 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked South Alabama Jaguars | 45c | 1,059$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.45 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 57c | 940.41$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 54c | 828.39$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.72 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked South Alabama Jaguars | 44c | 763.64$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.04 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 47c | 607$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.71 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed South Alabama Jaguars | 45c | 526.86$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.53 | 159 | 47.2%75 W · 84 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed South Alabama Jaguars | 47c | 408.77$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.74 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed South Alabama Jaguars | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 144 | 47.2%68 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed South Alabama Jaguars | 47c | 270.21$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.21 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 48c | 208.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed South Alabama Jaguars | 47c | 191.49$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 308 | 53.2%164 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 44c | 149.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed South Alabama Jaguars | 47c | 145$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed South Alabama Jaguars | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed South Alabama Jaguars | 44c | 116$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed South Alabama Jaguars | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed South Alabama Jaguars | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 56c | 99.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 54c | 56.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 57c | 52.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd714…9a62backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 55c | 50.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 56c | 46.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…b95dbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 52c | 42.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71d6…a929backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 56c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106d…ccefbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 59c | 32.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 53c | 24.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 54c | 24.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…06b3backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed South Alabama Jaguars | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Marshall Thundering Herd (-4.5)this page
- South Alabama Jaguars vs. Marshall Thundering HerdMarshall Thundering Herd won
- South Alabama Jaguars vs. Marshall Thundering Herd: O/U 149.5Over won
- South Alabama Jaguars vs. Marshall Thundering Herd: O/U 150.5Over won
- Spread: Marshall Thundering Herd (-2.5)Marshall Thundering Herd won
- Spread: Marshall Thundering Herd (-3.5)Marshall Thundering Herd won
- Spread: Marshall Thundering Herd (-5.5)South Alabama Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.