Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Marshall Thundering Herd (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4feea2cc0e5bb59a97f58da5308b1548ad72ca325bbfc40aaa7134c575c28d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marshall Thundering Herdof Marshall Thundering Herd, South Alabama Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 60c | 6,500$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 40c | 3,509$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.22 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed South Alabama Jaguars | 40c | 1,244$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.6 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked South Alabama Jaguars | 40c | 1,154$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.5 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb44f…8c20backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 61c | 985.26$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.26 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed South Alabama Jaguars | 40c | 951.07$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.43 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed South Alabama Jaguars | 40c | 533.99$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.07 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked South Alabama Jaguars | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…a928backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 55c | 91.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86f2…9511backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2313…3ee6backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 56c | 33.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…15d4backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…e878backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked South Alabama Jaguars | 40c | 27.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed South Alabama Jaguars | 40c | 25.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked South Alabama Jaguars | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 56c | 19.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Marshall Thundering Herd (-3.5)this page
- South Alabama Jaguars vs. Marshall Thundering HerdMarshall Thundering Herd won
- South Alabama Jaguars vs. Marshall Thundering Herd: O/U 149.5Over won
- South Alabama Jaguars vs. Marshall Thundering Herd: O/U 150.5Over won
- Spread: Marshall Thundering Herd (-2.5)Marshall Thundering Herd won
- Spread: Marshall Thundering Herd (-4.5)South Alabama Jaguars won
- Spread: Marshall Thundering Herd (-5.5)South Alabama Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.