Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Shintaro Imai
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc4600c9ba78d7d4b33927f41b82557c40b29ccf8c680faec02a13ef00879a87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shintaro Imaiof Hikaru Shiraishi, Shintaro Imai
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Shintaro Imai | 56c | 2,834$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.98 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 48c | 1,947$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.28 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 51c | 1,832$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.01 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 11c | 1,475$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…d505backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 372 | 35.2%131 W · 241 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 59c | 849.8$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 624 | 57.7%360 W · 264 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…e9dcbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 39c | 790.85$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.54 | 142 | 46.5%66 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Shintaro Imai | 74c | 751.25$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.98 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Shintaro Imai | 45c | 599.99$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.97 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Shintaro Imai | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 6c | 441.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 9c | 423$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 16c | 302.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 54c | 282.33$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Shintaro Imai | 50c | 250$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Shintaro Imai | 50c | 250$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 59c | 217.12$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.09 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Shintaro Imai | 43c | 201.75$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 12c | 201.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Shintaro Imai | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Shintaro Imai | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Shintaro Imai | 50c | 171$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.63 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Shintaro Imai | 40c | 132.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Shintaro Imai | 55c | 104.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Shintaro Imai | 55c | 62.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Shintaro Imai | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…b898backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 36c | 49.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Shintaro Imai | 51c | 43.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 53c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 53c | 36.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 205 | 66.8%137 W · 68 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 53c | 34.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 45c | 33.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Shintaro Imai | 62c | 33.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Shintaro Imai | 48c | 27.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…3186backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 60c | 24.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac50…d728backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 283 | 43.8%124 W · 159 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 196 | 37.2%73 W · 123 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.