TailMyPicks
Market

Lol · resolved market

LoL: ZYB Esport vs TLN Pirates (BO1) - LFL Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ZYB Esportof ZYB Esport, TLN Pirates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,578
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,470

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,578 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf163…ca34backed TLN Pirates1c6,430$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.31,49248.4%722 W · 770 L+47.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked TLN Pirates63c5,031$3,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,144.592,01258.1%1,168 W · 844 L+84.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed ZYB Esport60c3,561$2,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.751,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked ZYB Esport67c3,282$2,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.531,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked ZYB Esport41c2,510$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.912,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed ZYB Esport68c2,360$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.2569539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed TLN Pirates46c1,600$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74335546.8%166 W · 189 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked TLN Pirates60c1,261$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.5743442.4%184 W · 250 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed TLN Pirates48c1,250$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.491,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43ff…a491backed ZYB Esport46c1,130$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.6418554.1%100 W · 85 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf445…703ebacked TLN Pirates55c1,065$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.795343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b5…f30dbacked ZYB Esport58c1,049$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.564557.8%26 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed TLN Pirates1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102181.8%4 W · 214 L+0.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked ZYB Esport42c882$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.4387443.1%377 W · 497 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb777…3ff9backed TLN Pirates59c824.62$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.036746.3%31 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed TLN Pirates6c812.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.083,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cc5…ee5abacked TLN Pirates43c792.22$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.11922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-49.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed TLN Pirates31c745.15$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.621,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed ZYB Esport40c694.08$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.451,15355.9%645 W · 508 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41a6…fbadbacked TLN Pirates62c664.13$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.4310760.7%65 W · 42 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked ZYB Esport53c623.89$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.821,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc671…b0c7backed TLN Pirates7c580.67$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2642847.9%205 W · 223 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked ZYB Esport37c568.21$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.9988544.3%392 W · 493 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed ZYB Esport37c535.16$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.151,37248.6%667 W · 705 L+57.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ZYB Esport37c528.83$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.542,83641.4%1,175 W · 1,661 L-12.9wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed ZYB Esport38c501.68$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.071,22358.1%710 W · 513 L+43.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked TLN Pirates48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24060538.8%235 W · 370 L-1.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1994…d63cbacked TLN Pirates23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1159364.5%60 W · 33 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed ZYB Esport58c489.75$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.552,91038.5%1,120 W · 1,790 L-120.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed ZYB Esport37c482.03$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.491,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked TLN Pirates37c446.54$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.0395951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed ZYB Esport43c416.79$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.6866947.8%320 W · 349 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e1…8d38backed TLN Pirates56c412.48$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.0327254.4%148 W · 124 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked TLN Pirates47c411.97$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.8551848.3%250 W · 268 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed ZYB Esport40c408.4$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.8635243.2%152 W · 200 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed TLN Pirates27c403.49$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8532542.2%137 W · 188 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed ZYB Esport37c399.99$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.9954246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed ZYB Esport40c385.76$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.4613933.8%47 W · 92 L-14.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-32.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked TLN Pirates13c359.79$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4720826.9%56 W · 152 L-13.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc17d…2134backed TLN Pirates62c352.4$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.343751.4%19 W · 18 L-4.4wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked TLN Pirates63c310.41$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.561,67559.3%993 W · 682 L+96.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x292d…1321backed TLN Pirates46c305.31$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.929743.3%42 W · 55 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed ZYB Esport41c299.98$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.992,52147.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L-34.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed ZYB Esport61c294.12$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.7444129.5%130 W · 311 L-45.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-48%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked ZYB Esport39c285.76$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.314139%16 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53fc…76d7backed ZYB Esport29c272.91$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.991643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked TLN Pirates58c270.53$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.7561343.6%267 W · 346 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed ZYB Esport42c268$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.391,54543.8%676 W · 869 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5ba…06b3backed TLN Pirates36c267.68$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0229238.4%112 W · 180 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6077…3231backed ZYB Esport39c247.03$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.698448.8%41 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x956d…b750backed ZYB Esport40c229.34$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.69453.2%50 W · 44 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6018…ac09backed TLN Pirates61c225.09$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.725349.1%26 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked ZYB Esport47c222.67$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1233125.7%85 W · 246 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked ZYB Esport36c217.01$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.161,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked ZYB Esport39c210$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.148243.2%208 W · 274 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked ZYB Esport78c204.97$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0915364.1%98 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04c4…19fbbacked TLN Pirates26c204.06$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5513652.2%71 W · 65 L+13.5wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+22.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x410c…d091backed ZYB Esport40c199.63$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.788434.5%29 W · 55 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked ZYB Esport46c193.38$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.273237.7%276 W · 456 L-51.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0677…e865backed ZYB Esport43c191.05$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.939238%35 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa5…01b3backed TLN Pirates60c162.67$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.63046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5309…8485backed TLN Pirates24c159.07$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.18650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56a6…0529backed TLN Pirates22c149.48$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.892070%14 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+21.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf592…b62dbacked TLN Pirates61c148.22$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4168557.5%394 W · 291 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd7…8553backed ZYB Esport38c136.9$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.8870757%403 W · 304 L+35.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed TLN Pirates45c134.52$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.111,57748.4%764 W · 813 L+17.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb5…def4backed ZYB Esport74c133.47$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0511258.9%66 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4e9…a838backed TLN Pirates54c131.04$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.418051.3%41 W · 39 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fcb…5085backed ZYB Esport76c129.73$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1723656.8%134 W · 102 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked ZYB Esport38c128.82$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1642941.5%178 W · 251 L-24.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a41…15b2backed TLN Pirates63c127.12$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2513842.8%59 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked TLN Pirates59c119.44$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2240145.4%182 W · 219 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2417…86b1backed ZYB Esport42c114.49$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2217945.3%81 W · 98 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+19.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed ZYB Esport39c108.89$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4315056%84 W · 66 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked ZYB Esport48c108.01$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1656341%231 W · 332 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf52f…b2f5backed TLN Pirates51c100.04$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8316950.3%85 W · 84 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed ZYB Esport39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6124941.4%103 W · 146 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed ZYB Esport40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b56…9100backed TLN Pirates22c99.65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.924761.7%29 W · 18 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+35.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9227…7cedbacked TLN Pirates63c98.95$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5255347%260 W · 293 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked TLN Pirates25c96.66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1449514.3%71 W · 424 L-70.5wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-50.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x8c88…1e97backed ZYB Esport41c96.46$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.913461.8%21 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a3e…5d9dbacked ZYB Esport40c94.34$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7548042.3%203 W · 277 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed TLN Pirates60c88$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.839056.4%220 W · 170 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked TLN Pirates56c86.93$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6896348.7%469 W · 494 L+28.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed ZYB Esport48c83.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.781,64344.4%730 W · 913 L-42.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed TLN Pirates32c82.76$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.691,83117.1%313 W · 1,518 L-236.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed ZYB Esport41c79.05$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6436044.7%161 W · 199 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed ZYB Esport41c79.05$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6430246.4%140 W · 162 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed TLN Pirates59c79.04$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0227248.9%133 W · 139 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ZYB Esport78c77.92$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.12,36440.7%963 W · 1,401 L-57.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed TLN Pirates60c75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4531650.3%159 W · 157 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3976…d68ebacked ZYB Esport65c74.97$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4611630.2%35 W · 81 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed TLN Pirates55c70.21$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.916235.5%22 W · 40 L-8.0wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed TLN Pirates24c67.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2324435.7%87 W · 157 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d84…a7bdbacked ZYB Esport68c65.24$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.885745.6%26 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe703…37ddbacked ZYB Esport43c64.04$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8115556.1%87 W · 68 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked ZYB Esport52c62.09$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.582,98444.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L-94.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed TLN Pirates30c62.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.681,60817.5%282 W · 1,326 L-245.3wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4d85…2560backed ZYB Esport51c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3417349.7%86 W · 87 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.